Iowa State vs St. John's: Cyclones Favored in Las Vegas Showdown
Nov, 25 2025
On Monday, November 24, 2025, at 16:30 UTC, the Iowa State Cyclones (4-0) will meet the St. John's Red Storm (3-1) at the Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as part of the Players Era FestivalLas Vegas. This isn’t just another non-conference clash — it’s a battle of contrasting styles, veteran leadership, and sharply divided betting opinions. Iowa State enters as a -2.5 point favorite with -150 moneyline odds, but don’t be fooled: the game’s undercurrents suggest a far more unpredictable outcome than the lines imply.
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Box Score
For Iowa State, this is about maintaining momentum. Under fifth-year head coach T.J. Otzelberger, the Cyclones have made four straight NCAA tournaments — two Sweet 16 appearances included. They’re riding a four-game win streak, scoring 95.5 points per game on average and holding opponents to just 62.3. Their defense? Aggressive, chaotic, and designed to force turnovers that ignite fast breaks — which explains why they rank third nationally in two-point field goal percentage.
Meanwhile, St. John's comes in with a different identity. Coach Rick Pitino has rebuilt the Red Storm around experience, retaining Zuby Ejiifor, their top returning scorer from last season. Ejiifor, a transfer portal gem, brings grit and scoring versatility. St. John’s isn’t flashy — they’re gritty. They rebound like a team that knows every possession counts, averaging 36.9 boards per game last year, the eighth-best in the nation.
The Numbers Tell a Story — But Not the Whole Story
The betting lines tell one tale: Iowa State is the better team. But the numbers behind the numbers tell another.
While Iowa State boasts a +133 point differential and has dominated at home, they’ve only played one true away game so far. St. John’s, on the other hand, hasn’t played a single road contest — and their 0-0 away record isn’t a reflection of talent, but schedule. Their last win — a 12-point upset over Alabama — might’ve been the spark they needed. As Action Network noted, that win gave them confidence heading into a brutal non-conference finish: Iowa State, Baylor, Mississippi, Kentucky.
Defensively, St. John’s is elite — ranked 27th nationally in points allowed last season at 65.8 per game. Iowa State’s offense, while efficient, doesn’t always thrive against disciplined, physical teams. And here’s the twist: the total points line is set at 157.5 to 159.5, depending on the book. That’s unusually low for two high-tempo teams. SportsGambler.com predicts a 79-73 Iowa State win — but recommends the UNDER. Why? Because both teams have shown they can slow things down when it matters.
Expert Picks: A Battle of Minds
The analysts aren’t just split — they’re polarized.
Action Network’s betting analyst backs Iowa State on the moneyline at -135, arguing the Cyclones’ defense will suffocate St. John’s guards. But Covers.com’s Shawn Krest sees something else: "Zuby Ejiifor and the Red Storm to cover in Sin City." He believes St. John’s, playing with house money as underdogs, will use their rebounding and half-court execution to keep it close.
NumberFire’s model gives Iowa State a 53.3% win probability — barely better than a coin flip. Meanwhile, historical data shows Iowa State is 19-6 when favored by -142 or shorter. St. John’s, conversely, went 2-1 as underdogs last season, including both games when odds were +118 or higher. That’s not luck. That’s resilience.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Win
This game isn’t just about bragging rights. For Iowa State, a win solidifies their top-15 status heading into Big 12 play. A loss? It opens the door to questions about their ability to win away from Ames.
For St. John’s, this is a statement game. Pitino has spent two seasons rebuilding the program’s identity. Beating a top-15 team on a neutral court — especially one with Iowa State’s tournament pedigree — would signal that the Red Storm are back in the national conversation. And with Ejiifor leading the charge, they’ve got the veteran presence to pull it off.
What’s Next?
After this, Iowa State heads into Big 12 play with games against Kansas and Texas looming. St. John’s faces Baylor next — a tougher test than this one. But if they can hang with the Cyclones, they’ll enter conference play with belief.
Don’t be surprised if this game goes down to the final minute. Iowa State’s offense is potent, but St. John’s defense is built to disrupt. The under might be the smarter play — but don’t count out the Red Storm covering.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the total points line so low for two high-scoring teams?
Despite both teams averaging over 78 points per game, St. John’s plays a deliberate half-court style, and Iowa State’s defense forces turnovers that lead to slower, controlled possessions. The low total reflects analysts’ belief that neither team will get into a rhythm — especially with both coaches emphasizing defense and limiting transition opportunities.
How important is Zuby Ejiifor to St. John’s chances?
Ejiifor is their offensive engine — last season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. His ability to score in the post and draw fouls makes him the only Red Storm player who can consistently create his own shot against Iowa State’s physical defense. Without him, St. John’s struggles to score in the half court.
Has Iowa State ever lost as a favorite in Las Vegas?
In the past three seasons, Iowa State has played two neutral-site games in Las Vegas as favorites — and lost both. In 2023, they were -4 against Arizona and lost by 12. In 2022, they were -3.5 against Gonzaga and fell by 6. History suggests they’re vulnerable in Sin City, even when favored.
What’s the biggest X-factor in this game?
Rebounding. St. John’s ranks in the top 10 nationally in total rebounds, while Iowa State allows 34.2 boards per game — above the NCAA average. If Ejiifor and his frontcourt can dominate the glass, they’ll control tempo and limit Iowa State’s fast-break opportunities — the key to their offense.
Should I bet the moneyline or the spread?
If you believe in Iowa State’s consistency, the moneyline (-150) offers value. But if you think St. John’s will keep it close — and they’ve shown they can — the +2.5 spread is the smarter play. Six of their last eight games have been decided by 5 points or fewer.
What’s the most likely final score?
Most models project a 76-73 or 78-75 outcome in favor of Iowa State — close enough to cover the spread, but not enough to clear the under. The most consistent prediction across five analytics platforms is 77-74, which would make the under 159.5 a winning bet and the spread a push.